Poverty, selfish political interests and inadequate economic development are the underlying causes of the political crisis gripping Burundi, according to political analysts.
"The whole thing is almost Darwinian: too many people, too little land, an antiquated economy, a runaway demography and no prospects for economic growth," Gerard Prunier, a historian on eastern and central African affairs, told IRIN via e-mail.
Prunier, author of a respected book on Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, The Rwanda Crisis: History of a Genocide (C Hurst, 1998), also derided the "narrow-mindedness, selfishness and self-centredness of the political class".
"In such a situation, massacres have played a role of economic, if not demographic, regulation. The same is true of Rwanda."
Burundi’s Hutu majority and Tutsi minority spent most of the 1990s on opposite sides of a devastating civil war when large numbers of civilians were massacred.
Although the conflict is now officially over, the process of bringing in Burundi’s last rebel group, Palipehutu-Forces nationales de liberation (FNL) is deadlocked.
A crackdown on the opposition also bodes ill for Burundi’s prospects of imminent political stability.
"The Tutsi-Hutu conundrum is only the surface of the deeper economic limitations," Prunier told IRIN. "The real problem is poverty … The only thing that matters is power … outside of government there is absolutely nothing in Burundi you can make money out of … Out of power, you do not eat."
Frederic Ngoga Gateretse, a regional security analyst and member of the opposition National Union for Progress (UPRONA) party, accused the government of putting all its energy into winning elections due in 2010 “at all costs".
"For the alternative will be disastrous to the current leadership, which has a lot to answer for in terms of corruption, mismanagement of public funds, human rights violations and the scrapping of political freedom," he said, citing the detention of politicians such as Alexis Sinduhije.
"Political opposition is vital for a country that is coming out of a decade-long civil conflict like Burundi," Gateretse said.
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